TY  - JOUR
EP  - 62
N2  - As of May 2022, 787 stocks are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the number of stock indices in Indonesia to date is 38. One interesting and important stock index  is  the  LQ45  index.  The  LQ45  index  contains  45  stocks  that  have  undergone  a selection process with high liquidity and several criteria such as market capitalization, liquidity,  company  fundamental  conditions,   and  company  growth  prospects.Theforecasting process has two essential things: the data and the correct forecasting method. Two  forecasting  methods  that  can  be  used  are  Brown  and  Holt's  Double  Exponential  Smoothing (DES). This study examines two methods with the lowest accuracy error in forecasting the LQ45 stock price data. This research was conducted in 2022 using shares in the LQ45 stock index for six years (2016-2021) as training data (modeling data) and using two months of data (January and February 2022) as testing data.Mean Absolute Percentage  Error  (MAPE)  is  used  to  measure  the  accuracy  of  the  error.  The  analysis  methods  used  to  compare  the  MAPE  of  the  two  methods  are  the  F  test  for  variance  similarity,  Boxplot,  t-test  to  test  paired  means  with  different  variance  cases,  and  Wilcoxon signed rank test to test paired means nonparametric statistics. The result is that the MAPE average with Holt's DES method is smaller than the average MAPE with Brown's  DES  method.  This  is  supported  by  the  t-test  for  paired  means  with  different cases  of  variance  and  also  supported  by  the  Wilcoxon  signed  exact  rank  test.  Meanwhile, the MAPE standard deviation with Holt's DES method is smaller than the MAPE standard deviation with Brown's DES method. This is supported by the F test to test  the  variance  similarity  and  visually  supported  by  a  Boxplot  diagram.  From  this  study, LQ45 stocks with the smallest MAPE value accuracy are ICBP stocks. In general, based on the MAPE value, Holt's DES method is better than Brown's DES method in predicting the prices of stocks in the LQ45 index.
A1  - R. Gunawan Santosa
A1  - Antonius Rachmat Chrismanto
A1  - Willy Sudiarto Raharjo
PB  - International Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science Applications (IJITCSA) Sekretariat Jejaring Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat (JPPM)
UR  - https://ejurnal.jejaringppm.org/index.php/jitcsa/issue/view/13
IS  - 1
TI  - COMPARISON OF THE ACCURACY OF BROWN'S AND HOLT'S DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING IN LQ45 STOCK PRICE FORECASTING
ID  - katalog9188
Y1  - 2024/02/04/
SN  - 2964-3139
VL  - 2
KW  - double exponential smoothing
KW  -  brown?s method
KW  -  holt?s method
KW  -  LQ45 stock forecasting
SP  - 1
AV  - public
JF  - International Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science Applications (IJITCSA)
ER  -